Portfolio Insights
Monthly Update – February 2024
Precious Metals Breaking Out! We are in the first week of March now and gold is indicating a significant monthly breakout of a trend line that goes all the way back to 2011. If we close the month firmly above this line then the start of the next leg of...
Portfolio Insights
Monthly Update – November 2023
Precious Metals Breakout! As anticipated in our recent commentary and following our topping up of precious metals miner positions last month, the precious metals have finally broken to the upside on a monthly-close basis, with encouragingly little hype or mainstream media attention. If you have been following my updates, you...
Portfolio Insights
IMPORTANT Monthly Update – October 2023
Highlights As I discuss in the video summary above, my sense is that interest rates will pause in the US indicating a topping of the credit tightening cycle which historically coincides with a significant market rally. The recent upturn in gold and cryptocurrencies is signalling what is ahead as well...
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China – From Growth to Value
Between the late 1980s and the global financial crisis of 2008 the Chinese stock market, as represented by the Hang Seng index, grew more than 15 fold as China opened up to global trade, becoming the manufacturing hub of the world with its relatively cheap labour market. China, today, is...
Portfolio Insights
Monthly Update – August 23
Highlights This month saw the energy sector of the portfolio perform well on a rally in the oil price. Strength in the dollar and interest rates however put continued pressure on the precious metals miners which took a bit of a hammering. This, however, presents opportunity in our opinion and,...
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The Real Estate Cycle – why hold Homebuilding & Construction stocks now?
(Recession) Fears vs Fundamentals This month has seen a lot of downward volatility in the commodity space, seemingly driven by fears of an impending recession. The prevailing idea is that the high interest rates (~5%) are likely to slow the economy as less people can afford to borrow and take...